Not to be a downer as we head into the new year, but the outlook for the 2012 fly fishing season isn’t looking all that promising as December winds down.

Here on the California Coast, we’ve had our fourth driest December on record, which doesn’t bode well for reservoir levels and spring creek flows in 2012. And lower water levels, at least on our spring creeks, means fewer steelhead and trout will reach our spring waters, and fewer waters will even be open to fishing next year because of low flows.


Unless, of course, things turn around and we see more rain and snow (at the higher elevations) this winter and coming spring.

And rain has helped quench December dryspells like this in the past, at least on the Central Coast of California. Following one of the region’s driest Decembers in 1990, for example, San Luis Obispo County saw 12.82 inches of rain during the “miracle rains of March.”

The rest of the country might need a miracle at this rate, with a lack of snowpack providing a gloomy forecast for water flows in 2012.

Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow ...

Snowmelt from the Rockies, Sierra Nevada, etc., is the main source of runoff for many rivers across the country, and snowpack is extremely light in many areas heading into the new year.

This is almost a complete reversal from last year, when Big Sky Country and other regions across the country were hammered by floods and high flows that kept fishermen off the water until much later in the season.

In Jackson Hole, Wyo., for example, the snow was the story of 2011 and “stayed with us well into the summer, when record run-off made for bad early-season fishing and heart-stopping whitewater on area rivers.”

One has to wonder what the two extreme water conditions will do to our fisheries, which are just starting to settle in after swelling past capacity in 2011.

While the fishing is still decent in the Sierra Nevada and other areas that haven’t been covered by snow, the drought has put a strain on visitor-serving businesses that depend on that snow.

And that same strain could hit local fly shops and guides in 2012 if the water levels drop to a point where the fishing goes south.

Extreme Conditions Affecting Fish Populations

Consider Shaver Lake, in California’s Sierra Nevada. On top of the drought, Shaver Lake has been drained to streambed levels as part of an ongoing dam maintenance project, which has all but wiped out the popular lake’s population of trout and kokanee.

The lake will reportedly receive tens of thousands of pounds of stocked rainbow trout when water levels are restored, but that will completely change dynamics of Shaver Lake fishing. Fish might be bigger with larger stocked trout being farmed in, but their feeding habits will change as will the diversity of that fishery.

And how those effects on the fishery influence nearby streams remains to be seen.

Dave Kumlien, a Montana fly-fishing guide since the early 1970s, probably summed it best when he talked about all the changes the Bozeman area’s fisheries are enduring.

“Now imagine if you came home and your living room was in your attic,” he told the MNN.com. “You'd be outta there. That's what those high-volume incidents do: They rearrange stuff. The fish just disappear.”

Let’s hope those fish reappear, and the water doesn’t disappear, during what could be a fairly calm fishing season if we get at least a decent amount of rain and snow in early 2012.

Saltwater Fishing Outlook

But all of this talk about a lack of snow and rain won’t affect saltwater fly fishing, will it?

Not so fast.

Less runoff is arguably better for water quality along many beach stretches, although it doesn’t bode well for the return of salmon, steelhead and sea-run trout to our freshwater fisheries.

Not to mention the fact that a drought also contributes to high bay salinities and red tide in some areas.

So whether you’re planning on going freshwater or saltwater fishing, it’s clear we could use some more rain and snow in 2012, or at least not an extension of the drought we’ve seen over the latter half of 201

Let’s hope that 2012 will be a wet one, or at least not a continuation of drought from this past year.