Class Versus Form, How to Know Just How Much Ability a Horse Really Has
Class and form are two handicapping factors that are really hard to figure in horse racing handicapping.
Just because a horse raced against $10,000 claimers, it doesn't mean that the horse is up to the challenge and can be a contender in a $10,000 race.
On the other hand, a horse that looks really bad in a $10,000 race may drop a notch or two and score a big win.
Looking back over the past performances and seeing that it was in the $10,000 claiming ranks might help to explain a big score at a lower grade.
Sometimes, however, a horse drops several notches and still puts in a lackluster performance.
Just because a horse is entered in a race with a lower purse than the previous race it ran in, isn't enough of an indicator to make a bet advisable, when horseracing handicapping.
On the other hand, if a horse does reasonably well at a higher class, either shows some early pace or closes well, then a drop to a softer spot may be just what the horse needs to win.
The problem with this kind of runner, of course, is that anyone can spot it and these types usually go off at short odds.
A better indicator of a horses true ability is form when considered with class to indicate ability.
For instance, a horse who manages a Beyer speed figure of 80 against $10,000 claimers and finishes well or shows early speed, may very well register a higher Beyer when facing a softer field.
Just looking at a class drop alone, isn't enough, but even if a horse fails to finish in the money, expect a higher Beyer figure, more speed, when facing easier company.
So what is a good indicator of ability?Money is the one thing that can't be hidden, but is often overlooked in horse racing.
The most accurate way to determine a horse's true ability is to divide the number of races on the surface it is running on today by the amount of money it has earned on that surface.
That being said, there are a few caveats that must be mentioned.
First of all, beware of horses who were eligible for special "state bred" races with inflated purses.
Sometimes a young horse will be eligible to race against a pretty soft field in a state bred race and earn a decent purse, but when it gets into open company its real ability, or lack of ability, quickly becomes obvious.
Take a look at its races and make sure that isn't the case.
Secondly, since a horse's career may span many years and a lot can happen to it over those years, it is a good idea to stick with recent efforts.
A way to insure that you are looking at recent ability, especially when dealing with older horses, is to look at earnings for a set number of races.
Looking back at the last 3-5 races over the surface may be the best way to determine ability, form, and class.
Just as money in the pools can indicate where the money is coming from on the backstretch, as discussed in True Handicapping.
Money in past performances is the truest and most accurate way to determine form and class.
Just because a horse raced against $10,000 claimers, it doesn't mean that the horse is up to the challenge and can be a contender in a $10,000 race.
On the other hand, a horse that looks really bad in a $10,000 race may drop a notch or two and score a big win.
Looking back over the past performances and seeing that it was in the $10,000 claiming ranks might help to explain a big score at a lower grade.
Sometimes, however, a horse drops several notches and still puts in a lackluster performance.
Just because a horse is entered in a race with a lower purse than the previous race it ran in, isn't enough of an indicator to make a bet advisable, when horseracing handicapping.
On the other hand, if a horse does reasonably well at a higher class, either shows some early pace or closes well, then a drop to a softer spot may be just what the horse needs to win.
The problem with this kind of runner, of course, is that anyone can spot it and these types usually go off at short odds.
A better indicator of a horses true ability is form when considered with class to indicate ability.
For instance, a horse who manages a Beyer speed figure of 80 against $10,000 claimers and finishes well or shows early speed, may very well register a higher Beyer when facing a softer field.
Just looking at a class drop alone, isn't enough, but even if a horse fails to finish in the money, expect a higher Beyer figure, more speed, when facing easier company.
So what is a good indicator of ability?Money is the one thing that can't be hidden, but is often overlooked in horse racing.
The most accurate way to determine a horse's true ability is to divide the number of races on the surface it is running on today by the amount of money it has earned on that surface.
That being said, there are a few caveats that must be mentioned.
First of all, beware of horses who were eligible for special "state bred" races with inflated purses.
Sometimes a young horse will be eligible to race against a pretty soft field in a state bred race and earn a decent purse, but when it gets into open company its real ability, or lack of ability, quickly becomes obvious.
Take a look at its races and make sure that isn't the case.
Secondly, since a horse's career may span many years and a lot can happen to it over those years, it is a good idea to stick with recent efforts.
A way to insure that you are looking at recent ability, especially when dealing with older horses, is to look at earnings for a set number of races.
Looking back at the last 3-5 races over the surface may be the best way to determine ability, form, and class.
Just as money in the pools can indicate where the money is coming from on the backstretch, as discussed in True Handicapping.
Money in past performances is the truest and most accurate way to determine form and class.
Source...