Principal Reduction Program: Will Double Dip Recession Be Prevented
This country may be in worse shape if a rare double-dip recession hits the real estate and mortgage industry in 2011 or 2012.
CNN took a survey of economists who said that it would be a one-in-four chance that this would actually happen.
But in reality, this new percentage is way up from the 15 percent chances of this happening only months ago according to principal reduction experts.
Roughly two-thirds of these economists agreed on the fact that a greater chance of this type of recession could happen with the mortgage crisis that continued through 2010.
Only three believe there is less risk than there was in the spring.
Nine of the economists surveyed left their forecasts unchanged.
There have been economists and loan audit experts who have been talking about ongoing fundamental weakness and the possibility of a double-dip for at least nine months of which certain ones who put the risk at 25 percent.
Then there were three of the economists who put the risk of a double-dip to as high as 39.
6 percent.
In fact, the sentiments seem to be that there are more and more indications that we have the potential for a double dip.
But what is truly alarming is that consumer optimism is dying fast.
Americans are more concerned about their jobs, the uncertainty about taxes and no longer confident that this administration can stop this crisis.
The stronger economic growth that began late in 2009 sputtered out in 2010.
Hiring has slowed down at a terrible pace, as has consumer spending according to loan reduction statistics.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), an independent group of economists charged with dating when recessions begin and end, declared that the Great Recession that started in December 2007 came to an end in June 2009.
The statement acknowledged that the recovery remains weak, and that another downturn is quite possible.
This may only lead to more foreclosures and housing prices that will continue to fall so that even the best principal reduction program may not help all who desperately need it.
However, there are those in Washington who are no doubt happy that this supposed recession is officially over although a potential double-dip recession would not be considered a new set back and in no way would be a continuation of the old recession.
This financial technicality should make even the cynical one feel better.
But in reality, double-dip recessions are extremely rare even in this country.
The last official one occurred nearly 30 years ago in the early 1980s which was quickly followed by an even deeper downturn of 1981-82.
However, many fear that history will undoubtedly repeat itself.
CNN took a survey of economists who said that it would be a one-in-four chance that this would actually happen.
But in reality, this new percentage is way up from the 15 percent chances of this happening only months ago according to principal reduction experts.
Roughly two-thirds of these economists agreed on the fact that a greater chance of this type of recession could happen with the mortgage crisis that continued through 2010.
Only three believe there is less risk than there was in the spring.
Nine of the economists surveyed left their forecasts unchanged.
There have been economists and loan audit experts who have been talking about ongoing fundamental weakness and the possibility of a double-dip for at least nine months of which certain ones who put the risk at 25 percent.
Then there were three of the economists who put the risk of a double-dip to as high as 39.
6 percent.
In fact, the sentiments seem to be that there are more and more indications that we have the potential for a double dip.
But what is truly alarming is that consumer optimism is dying fast.
Americans are more concerned about their jobs, the uncertainty about taxes and no longer confident that this administration can stop this crisis.
The stronger economic growth that began late in 2009 sputtered out in 2010.
Hiring has slowed down at a terrible pace, as has consumer spending according to loan reduction statistics.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), an independent group of economists charged with dating when recessions begin and end, declared that the Great Recession that started in December 2007 came to an end in June 2009.
The statement acknowledged that the recovery remains weak, and that another downturn is quite possible.
This may only lead to more foreclosures and housing prices that will continue to fall so that even the best principal reduction program may not help all who desperately need it.
However, there are those in Washington who are no doubt happy that this supposed recession is officially over although a potential double-dip recession would not be considered a new set back and in no way would be a continuation of the old recession.
This financial technicality should make even the cynical one feel better.
But in reality, double-dip recessions are extremely rare even in this country.
The last official one occurred nearly 30 years ago in the early 1980s which was quickly followed by an even deeper downturn of 1981-82.
However, many fear that history will undoubtedly repeat itself.
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