Why Do Generalists Do Better in Predicting the Future?
There are a tremendous number of people that call themselves futurists.
They like to run around predicting things about how life will be in the future.
What we know from past experience is that nearly all of the futurists of the past were wrong about what we see in our society today.
For instance we don't see flying cars buzzing all around, and many of the other way out predictions do not exist either.
Thank God actually, as some of the things that were predicted do not sound too good to the future of mankind.
Still, there have been many "bulls eyes" when it comes to future predictions, and some of the top science fiction authors of days gone by have indeed predicted things have actually come to pass, but one has to ask; did they not plant the seed, and in doing so others that read their works decided to make it so? Jules Vern did not invent the submarine, just like Leonardo da Vinci did not invent modern scuba gear, but both had an active role in those technologies we enjoy today.
It is interesting to note that many people who predict things that might happen in future periods are wrong because they are too close to their own technologies.
It is often a generalist, or the Renaissance man who more accurately is able to predict the future, and even with these generalists they are wrong most of the time, yet they do have a tremendous number of unexpected hits.
One can only wonder why this is? It would seem that an educated scientist who is on the leading edge of their particular technology would be better able to predict how it might be used in the future.
But this isn't the case.
Perhaps, it is because the specialist is in a limited area of expertise and doesn't see everything else happening around them or they are somewhat removed from society to accurately perceive and understand what people will desire in the future.
After all, the entrepreneurs only bring to market that people want, because these are the only things that people are willing to pay for.
A generalist will see this and a specialist may not realize it; and that I believe is at least one of the major differences.
Please consider all this.
They like to run around predicting things about how life will be in the future.
What we know from past experience is that nearly all of the futurists of the past were wrong about what we see in our society today.
For instance we don't see flying cars buzzing all around, and many of the other way out predictions do not exist either.
Thank God actually, as some of the things that were predicted do not sound too good to the future of mankind.
Still, there have been many "bulls eyes" when it comes to future predictions, and some of the top science fiction authors of days gone by have indeed predicted things have actually come to pass, but one has to ask; did they not plant the seed, and in doing so others that read their works decided to make it so? Jules Vern did not invent the submarine, just like Leonardo da Vinci did not invent modern scuba gear, but both had an active role in those technologies we enjoy today.
It is interesting to note that many people who predict things that might happen in future periods are wrong because they are too close to their own technologies.
It is often a generalist, or the Renaissance man who more accurately is able to predict the future, and even with these generalists they are wrong most of the time, yet they do have a tremendous number of unexpected hits.
One can only wonder why this is? It would seem that an educated scientist who is on the leading edge of their particular technology would be better able to predict how it might be used in the future.
But this isn't the case.
Perhaps, it is because the specialist is in a limited area of expertise and doesn't see everything else happening around them or they are somewhat removed from society to accurately perceive and understand what people will desire in the future.
After all, the entrepreneurs only bring to market that people want, because these are the only things that people are willing to pay for.
A generalist will see this and a specialist may not realize it; and that I believe is at least one of the major differences.
Please consider all this.
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