The Current State of Missile Defenses
In December 2002, President George W.
Bush called for the deployment of missile defense assets capable of providing an initial defense against the rogue-state ballistic missile threat.
The initial deployment as outlined by the President was expected to be "modest" but available for limited defensive missions beginning in 2004.
These efforts were clearly considered just a starting point for development and deployment of improved and expanded capabilities in the years that followed.
U.
S.
efforts are designed to provide interception opportunities during all three segments or phases of a ballistic missile's flight, thereby providing a layered defense with multiple opportunities to destroy an attacking missile before it strikes its target.
Today's missile defenses are focused on the midcourse and terminal phases.
The United States has 24 ground-based midcourse (GMD) interceptors in missile fields at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, and 30 should be deployed by the end of 2008.
Twelve Aegis ships are equipped with the long-range surveillance and tracking capabilities needed to perform midcourse ballistic missile defense missions.
Six more Aegis ships are scheduled for conversion by the end of 2008.
These vessels are outfitted with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors.
Upgrading of the SM-2 Block IV missile will further expand the Navy's missile defense capabilities.
The goal is to deploy up to 100 interceptors on 18 Aegis ships to provide a near-term terminal engagement capability beginning in 2009.
The Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) terminal defensive system has been completed and transitioned to the U.
S.
Army.
Plans call for the construction of four Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) fire units comprising 96 interceptors by 2013.
Work on the Fylingdales Radar in the United Kingdom, the Cobra Dane Radar, the Sea-Based X-Band Radar, and the forward based transportable X-Band radar has been completed in addition to development and construction of the communications and battle management systems and software linking the whole system together.
Integrating these multiple radars enlarges the battlespace, provides overlapping fields of vision to increase the accuracy of tracking data and to eliminate blind spots, and eases the transition or "handoff" of information to the kill vehicle.
All currently operational BMD systems use surface-launched interceptor missiles based on the "hit-to-kill" approach.
They aim for and directly collide with the attacking ballistic missile at extremely high closing speeds.
The impact energy alone is enough to pulverize the target into small fragments.
The hit-to-kill approach has been demonstrated successfully more than 30 times in various systems since 2001.
The GMD program is six for nine since 2001.
The "unsuccessful" intercept tests revealed problems with the booster rockets, which were corrected, as illustrated by the successful September 2007 flight test.
The Aegis program has had 13 successful intercept tests, with its two "failures" linked to assembly issues with the divert attitude control and an incorrect system setting caused by human error.
THAAD is five for five in its intercept tests, with one target malfunction resulting in a canceled test.
Overall, the failures revealed hardware and engineering issues associated with the boosters and highlighted the importance of investing in a reliable target set.
For each of the systems, the test experiences show that, once deployed, the kill vehicle reliably finds and destroys its target.
Dr.
Charles McQueary, Director of Operational Test and Evaluation at the Department of Defense, offered important perspective on how far the program has come when he stated: "Hit-to-kill is no longer a technological uncertainty; it is a reality, being successfully demonstrated many times over the past few years.
" The existing systems are a good start, but they are limited, both in terms of the coverage that they can provide and in the types of missiles that they can intercept.
The current systems cannot exploit all three phases of a ballistic missile's flight.
Critically, nothing currently available can intercept missiles in their boost phase, but two boost-phase programs are under development.
The first is the Airborne Laser (ABL), a high-powered laser integrated into a modified 747 that is scheduled for a lethal shootdown test in 2009.
The other is the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), a high-acceleration groundlaunched interceptor missile that is under development.
Another promising addition to American missile defense is the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV), a much smaller version of the current generation of the hit-to-kill interceptor warheads in use today.
It will enable one interceptor to launch several kill vehicles in hopes of destroying multiple incoming warheads and decoys.
However, only a limited amount of protection against ballistic missiles is possible from terrestrially based systems.
The limits of height, speed, acceleration, borders, and coastlines all curtail the reach and effectiveness of earthbound missile defense systems.
The best place from which to mount an effective missile defense is space.
The contemporary missile defense program does not have a space-based component, and efforts to move missile defense to space have been confounded by politics, cost, and technical debates.
In summary, today's ballistic missile defense represents significant progress since 2002.
The construction and fielding of the initial defensive capability is well underway.
Future efforts must build on this foundation and move toward more robust defenses by engaging missiles in their boost phase, enabling multiple intercept opportunities from the same interceptor, and improving sensor, tracking, and battle management abilities.
Bush called for the deployment of missile defense assets capable of providing an initial defense against the rogue-state ballistic missile threat.
The initial deployment as outlined by the President was expected to be "modest" but available for limited defensive missions beginning in 2004.
These efforts were clearly considered just a starting point for development and deployment of improved and expanded capabilities in the years that followed.
U.
S.
efforts are designed to provide interception opportunities during all three segments or phases of a ballistic missile's flight, thereby providing a layered defense with multiple opportunities to destroy an attacking missile before it strikes its target.
- In the boost phase, the first phase of flight, which lasts three to five minutes, the missile blasts off from the ground heading toward space, accelerating rapidly to reach the height, speed, and direction needed to reach its target.
- During the midcourse phase, which may last nearly 20 minutes, the missile payload coasts on an unpowered and purely ballistic path outside the Earth's atmosphere and covers most of the distance to its target.
- In the terminal phase, which lasts only a few minutes, the missile's warhead(s) re-enter(s) the atmosphere and descend(s) rapidly to strike the target(s).
Today's missile defenses are focused on the midcourse and terminal phases.
The United States has 24 ground-based midcourse (GMD) interceptors in missile fields at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, and 30 should be deployed by the end of 2008.
Twelve Aegis ships are equipped with the long-range surveillance and tracking capabilities needed to perform midcourse ballistic missile defense missions.
Six more Aegis ships are scheduled for conversion by the end of 2008.
These vessels are outfitted with Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors.
Upgrading of the SM-2 Block IV missile will further expand the Navy's missile defense capabilities.
The goal is to deploy up to 100 interceptors on 18 Aegis ships to provide a near-term terminal engagement capability beginning in 2009.
The Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) terminal defensive system has been completed and transitioned to the U.
S.
Army.
Plans call for the construction of four Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) fire units comprising 96 interceptors by 2013.
Work on the Fylingdales Radar in the United Kingdom, the Cobra Dane Radar, the Sea-Based X-Band Radar, and the forward based transportable X-Band radar has been completed in addition to development and construction of the communications and battle management systems and software linking the whole system together.
Integrating these multiple radars enlarges the battlespace, provides overlapping fields of vision to increase the accuracy of tracking data and to eliminate blind spots, and eases the transition or "handoff" of information to the kill vehicle.
All currently operational BMD systems use surface-launched interceptor missiles based on the "hit-to-kill" approach.
They aim for and directly collide with the attacking ballistic missile at extremely high closing speeds.
The impact energy alone is enough to pulverize the target into small fragments.
The hit-to-kill approach has been demonstrated successfully more than 30 times in various systems since 2001.
The GMD program is six for nine since 2001.
The "unsuccessful" intercept tests revealed problems with the booster rockets, which were corrected, as illustrated by the successful September 2007 flight test.
The Aegis program has had 13 successful intercept tests, with its two "failures" linked to assembly issues with the divert attitude control and an incorrect system setting caused by human error.
THAAD is five for five in its intercept tests, with one target malfunction resulting in a canceled test.
Overall, the failures revealed hardware and engineering issues associated with the boosters and highlighted the importance of investing in a reliable target set.
For each of the systems, the test experiences show that, once deployed, the kill vehicle reliably finds and destroys its target.
Dr.
Charles McQueary, Director of Operational Test and Evaluation at the Department of Defense, offered important perspective on how far the program has come when he stated: "Hit-to-kill is no longer a technological uncertainty; it is a reality, being successfully demonstrated many times over the past few years.
" The existing systems are a good start, but they are limited, both in terms of the coverage that they can provide and in the types of missiles that they can intercept.
The current systems cannot exploit all three phases of a ballistic missile's flight.
Critically, nothing currently available can intercept missiles in their boost phase, but two boost-phase programs are under development.
The first is the Airborne Laser (ABL), a high-powered laser integrated into a modified 747 that is scheduled for a lethal shootdown test in 2009.
The other is the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI), a high-acceleration groundlaunched interceptor missile that is under development.
Another promising addition to American missile defense is the Multiple Kill Vehicle (MKV), a much smaller version of the current generation of the hit-to-kill interceptor warheads in use today.
It will enable one interceptor to launch several kill vehicles in hopes of destroying multiple incoming warheads and decoys.
However, only a limited amount of protection against ballistic missiles is possible from terrestrially based systems.
The limits of height, speed, acceleration, borders, and coastlines all curtail the reach and effectiveness of earthbound missile defense systems.
The best place from which to mount an effective missile defense is space.
The contemporary missile defense program does not have a space-based component, and efforts to move missile defense to space have been confounded by politics, cost, and technical debates.
In summary, today's ballistic missile defense represents significant progress since 2002.
The construction and fielding of the initial defensive capability is well underway.
Future efforts must build on this foundation and move toward more robust defenses by engaging missiles in their boost phase, enabling multiple intercept opportunities from the same interceptor, and improving sensor, tracking, and battle management abilities.
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