Will the World Grant Independence?
November 21, 2006
Kosovo has been a serious concern of U.S. foreign policy makers for almost a decade. And big decisions about Kosovo's future are about to be made.
Serb politician Slobodan Milosevic appealed to Serb nationalism in order to gain greater political power.
At best, Milosevic created an atmosphere where Kosovars were seen as a threat to what little pride and territory the old Yugoslavia had left. At worst, Milosevic was the inspiration for the attempted genocide of the Kosovars.
In short course, Albanian schools were closed, homes burned, and once stable, prosperous lives turned upside down. The oppression of ethnic Albanian Kosovars didn't end until NATO military force was used against the Serbs in 1999. By then, at least 10,000 lives were lost, 500,000 were homeless, and one million had fled the country.
The Kosovars were (and still are) enormously grateful to the United States for leading the intervention. They renamed the main street in Pristina, the Kosovo capital, Bill Clinton Boulevard. More than 7,000 U.S. troops are still stationed in Kosovo.
Since 1999, Kosovo has been secured by NATO's Kosovo Force (KFOR) and run by the United Nations Mission for Kosovo (UNMIK).
Although still technically part of Serbia, Kosovo has been run without Serb government influence for several years. But this temporary division needs a long term solution which will prevent future war and oppression.
Talks began in Vienna early this year led by the widely-respected veteran diplomat (and former president of Finland) Martti Ahtisaari. And nearly all observers believe an independent Kosovo of some kind will be the ultimate outcome. Returning Kosovo to Serbian rule is not a serious option. And most Serbs understand this.
But what the new Kosovo will look like is still a mystery. Independence is likely to carry some conditions and requirements. Most important will be deciding how to both protect and give meaningful political voice to the Serbs left living inside Kosovo's borders.
The six nations running the talks (United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Russia) said they wanted the final status of Kosovo to be negotiated by the relevant parties. But no agreement seems likely after months of dialogue. Therefore, the international community is expected to "impose" a settlement.
Because an announcement on Kosovo might impact Serb elections (the reality of Kosovo's independence might boost hardline nationalist candidates) Ahtisaari now says his final report will be released shortly after those elections.
The widely respected, non-governmental organization International Crisis Group just issued a report saying that while this new delay in Kosovo's final status is understandable, more delays will not be tolerated in Kosovo. They write, "Further delay would be taken in Belgrade not as a cue to cooperate with an orderly Kosovo process but as a further opportunity to wreck it. Kosovo Albanian social and political fragility offer Belgrade a last opportunity to change the outcome. And delay much into 2007 would severely test Kosovo Albanian cohesion." And they warn, "The longer the Kosovo Albanians are forced to wait, the greater the chance they will discredit themselves with unilateral independence moves or riots."
Kosovo has been a serious concern of U.S. foreign policy makers for almost a decade. And big decisions about Kosovo's future are about to be made.
Background
Serbs were the top dogs in the old Yugoslavia. As the federation fell apart in the 1990's, a dangerous situation emerged. Some ethnic Albanians in the Serb region of Kosovo were tempted to follow the path of independence forged by Croatia and Slovenia.Serb politician Slobodan Milosevic appealed to Serb nationalism in order to gain greater political power.
At best, Milosevic created an atmosphere where Kosovars were seen as a threat to what little pride and territory the old Yugoslavia had left. At worst, Milosevic was the inspiration for the attempted genocide of the Kosovars.
In short course, Albanian schools were closed, homes burned, and once stable, prosperous lives turned upside down. The oppression of ethnic Albanian Kosovars didn't end until NATO military force was used against the Serbs in 1999. By then, at least 10,000 lives were lost, 500,000 were homeless, and one million had fled the country.
The Kosovars were (and still are) enormously grateful to the United States for leading the intervention. They renamed the main street in Pristina, the Kosovo capital, Bill Clinton Boulevard. More than 7,000 U.S. troops are still stationed in Kosovo.
Since 1999, Kosovo has been secured by NATO's Kosovo Force (KFOR) and run by the United Nations Mission for Kosovo (UNMIK).
Although still technically part of Serbia, Kosovo has been run without Serb government influence for several years. But this temporary division needs a long term solution which will prevent future war and oppression.
Final Status
The "final status" of Kosovo is about to be decided.Talks began in Vienna early this year led by the widely-respected veteran diplomat (and former president of Finland) Martti Ahtisaari. And nearly all observers believe an independent Kosovo of some kind will be the ultimate outcome. Returning Kosovo to Serbian rule is not a serious option. And most Serbs understand this.
But what the new Kosovo will look like is still a mystery. Independence is likely to carry some conditions and requirements. Most important will be deciding how to both protect and give meaningful political voice to the Serbs left living inside Kosovo's borders.
The six nations running the talks (United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and Russia) said they wanted the final status of Kosovo to be negotiated by the relevant parties. But no agreement seems likely after months of dialogue. Therefore, the international community is expected to "impose" a settlement.
The Decision is Near
Although Ahtisaari and other were hopeful that a final status decision would be announced by the end of 2006, a new wrinkle has delayed action. Serbia announced a referendum on a new constitution (approved October 29, 2006) and then a round of elections to be held January 21, 2007.Because an announcement on Kosovo might impact Serb elections (the reality of Kosovo's independence might boost hardline nationalist candidates) Ahtisaari now says his final report will be released shortly after those elections.
The widely respected, non-governmental organization International Crisis Group just issued a report saying that while this new delay in Kosovo's final status is understandable, more delays will not be tolerated in Kosovo. They write, "Further delay would be taken in Belgrade not as a cue to cooperate with an orderly Kosovo process but as a further opportunity to wreck it. Kosovo Albanian social and political fragility offer Belgrade a last opportunity to change the outcome. And delay much into 2007 would severely test Kosovo Albanian cohesion." And they warn, "The longer the Kosovo Albanians are forced to wait, the greater the chance they will discredit themselves with unilateral independence moves or riots."
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